70,000 lost jobs in St. Louis County: Exaggerated death counts from COVID-19? Its past time to reopen the economy

In view of the ongoing and gigantic loss of economic opportunities and individual liberties in St. Louis County Missouri from the lockdown measures, one question must be answered, “Was and is it worth it?

Consider the following data. A solid estimate for lost jobs in St. Louis County over the months of March and April is 70,000.

This is computed as follows. Jobless claims are posted both for St. Louis County and the State of Missouri at https://labor.mo.gov/data. Using this data, one can compute the jobs lost to COVID-19 in St. Louis County. The first step is to compute the simple baseline average of monthly unemployment claims in St. Louis County for the period Jan. 2019-Feb. 2020. It is 2,357.  Next, for the months of March and April, compute total unemployment claims and subtract the 2,357 for each month. The resulting number of jobs lost due to COVID-19 in St. Louis County is 69,910, which can be rounded to 70,000.

Next, consider how many COVID-19 deaths have occurred in St. Louis County over this period. The published data can be found at: https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/covid-19/data/demographics.cfm.

This source also breaks down deaths from COVID-19 in St. Louis County by age. This chart shows the numbers of deaths from COVID-19 in red for St. Louis County Missouri. First, notice that there is no one under 50 reported as dying from COVID-19. Of the total 78 cases reported, 13 (16%) are over 90, 24 (31%) are between 80-89, 17 (22%) are between 70-79, 13 (16%) are between 60-69 and 11 (14%) are between 50 and 59. As being reported across the nation, 86% of COVID-19 deaths are seniors citizens over 60 years of age. While the actual numbers of death are 220 and higher now. The age distribution is substantially the same.

Any death is tragic.  However, in terms of job losses, each COVID-19 death in St. Louis County has cost 318 jobs (70,000 / 220), not to mention countless businesses that will never come back.

Another question that needs to be answered is, “How does the death of 220 Missourians in St. Louis Country over 2 months, allegedly from COVID-19, compare with what we would normally expect to see?” To answer this we need the population of St. Louis County by age group and the average death rate for members of each age group.

The chart below shows both. First, the population of St. Louis County by age for the 2010 Census is shown in Column 2. The current population in the County has declined to 994,205 but the percentages still apply. Next, the average death rates by age group are provided by Data360 at: http://data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=587&count=all, and are shown in column 2. Column 3 shows the computed numbers of expected deaths for each age group in St. Louis County Missouri.


The total computed annual deaths for St. Louis Country Missouri  are 9,943. Moreover, 82% of these deaths are expected to take place in the over 60 age bracket. Therefore, the age distribution of deaths from COVID-19 are in line with what we would expect from average annual deaths in St. Louis County. This raises the question of whether these death statistics amount to nothing more than what we would generally see for an average year. The CDC freely admits that they are attributing deaths to COVID-19 when there are multiple or numerous comorbidities. They have gone even further and confessed to attributing deaths to COVID-19 when COVID-19 is not present.

In conclusion, the seems the gigantic economic and individual liberty costs cannot be disputed for St. Louis County. There are numerous questions and doubts about the health impact of COVID-19 in terms of accurate death counts.

One final question that should be answered is why Sam Page and Lyda Krewson cannot learn from states such as South Dakota. In that state, Governor Kristi Noem urged citizens to practice social distancing and, in cases where segments of the population were more vulnerable, shelter at home. She trusted the good judgement of her citizens.  One cannot quarrel with the results in her state. South Dakota has only 1o deaths attributed to COVID-19.

Sam Page recently indicated that R Naught (R0), the infection rate for COVID-19, was below 1.0. The infection rate of 1.0 is the threshold, below which the infection dies off. In light of the giant economic costs and the fact that the infection rate is now insignificant, why not give businesses in St. Louis County a break and let them get back to work?